Survey on General Election-2024: Himachal Pradesh

About the survey: It was an online survey conducted in Himachal Pradesh only to know the opinion of voters about their voting behaviour in the four parliamentary constituencies Shimla, Kangra, Mandi and Hamirpur. It was an independent and voluntary survey conducted by two researchers namely Dr. Baldev Singh Negi who is working at Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla and Dr. Devender Sharma, working at Government Degree College, Chail Koti, Himachal Pradesh.

The sample size of the survey was 1082 to understand the voting behaviour on the basis of the opinion of youth, women and employees on the issues like, manifestoes issued by different political parties, leaders/star campaigners’ influence, impact of INDI Alliance campaign, political turmoil’s and finally the winning position of parties.

Age wise 27.4 percent respondents were in the age group of 36-45, followed by 22.2 percent from 26-35 age group, 21.6 percent from 18-25 age group, 20.1 percent from 46-55 age group, between 56-56 year of age group there were 7.2 percent and above 66 years there were 1.5 percent. This shows that most of the respondents (71.2 percent) were from middle age group up to 45 years.

The socio-economic background of the respondents’ shows that, the survey was comprised of 63.4 percent general, 16.1 percent scheduled caste, and 15.2 percent Scheduled tribe and 5.4 percent were from the category of OBCs, which is the reflection of inclusivity of the sample. In this survey there was no respondent without formal literacy rather 88.2 percent respondents were having their qualification graduation and more than that. However, 11.8 respondents were having their education till higher secondary level. This survey included 44.9 percent employees, 25.1 percent students, 9.2 percent farmers, 3.3 percent businessman and there were 17 percent respondents who were from other professions.

The analysis on the different questions asked in this survey is as under:

1.    The question that which issue is going to dominate the 2024 general elections in Himachal Pradesh? Answering this question, 53.79 percent respondents stressed on unemployment, which is the most pressing demand of the youth in Himachal. Followed by unemployment, Inflation came out as the issue for 18.30 percent. However, 8 percent respondents said Ram Mandir is going to be an issue in this election. (Fig-1) If we analyse the youth data, 63 percent says unemployment is the dominating issue in this election (Fig-2).

2.    There was a question related to the turmoil occurred due to defection with in congress party. It was asked that whom do you think was responsible for that upheaval? Whether it was internal conflict or it was BJP’s operation lotus? 48.1 percent respondents considered internal working of congress party responsible for this incident, there were 41.2 percent respondent’s reasoned BJP’s operation lotus diplomacy. However, a considerable opinion (10.7 percent) was neutral. So there was mixed opinion on that question (Fig-3). 

3.    When a question was asked that whether this election is localised on Himachaliyat or Modi wave has wiped out local issues of the state? 61 percent respondents rejected Modi wave and said people are going to vote on local issues. However, 24.6 percent respondents still believe that Modi wave will dilute all local issues on the ground and 4.1 percent chose other (Fig-4).

4.    A devastating natural calamity in the form of flash floods occurred in the state last year caused more than 150 deaths and estimated total loss amounts to Rs. 10,000 crore. When it was asked that State government demanded from the centre to declare this natural calamity a national disaster, and centre refused, will this going to be an issue in the election? 49.2 percent respondents said this issue is going to be a pressing one and 23.8 percent respondents denied. Apart from this 27 percent said that there will be the impact of this issue but not to that extent (Fig-5).

5.    On the question whether Kisan Aandolan has any impact on the mind of peasant voters in Himachal, while voting for Lok Sabha? 33.5 percent said yes while 38.6 percent respondents said since the farmers of Himachal did not have direct participation in the protests therefore there is no influence and 27.9 percent directly denied its impact in the state (Fig-6).

6.    OPS have led a very significant role in the state assembly elections-2022. It was asked whether in this Lok Sabha election OPS will be a factor or not? 49.4 percent said yes because of fear of losing pension if BJP comes in power. Only 16 percent rejected this fear and impact of this issue in this election. Apart from this 34.2 respondents also admitted that there will be an impact but not like it was in the previous assembly elections (Fig-7). Out of total employees respondents 54.7 percent said that OPS is an issue in this election, not only this out of total (534 respondents who said this is an issues) 21 percent were students, 9 percent were farmers and 3.4 percent was businessman (Fig-8).

7.    Agnipath scheme which is one of the major issues among youth of north India as political analysts feel. The question was asked whether in this election it was an issue or not? 58.4 percent respondents accepted that this is a major issue among the youth (Fig-9). Those who said that Agnipath scheme is an issue (632 respondents) among them 75 percent were up to the age group of 45 years as young voters (Fig-10).

8.    On the question of corruption particularly electoral bonds as an issue in this election in Himachal Pradesh 47.50 percent respondents accepted it as an issue however 22 percent respondents feels that BJP and 7.6 percent says congress is going to be damaged by this issue. A significant (22.92 percent) thinks that this is not an issue (Fig-11).

9.    Is Ram Mandir as an issue in this election? 40.85 percent respondents said in Himachal Pradesh, people have faith in local deities therefore; Ram Mandir has not that much impact on the behaviour of voters. However, 33.83 percent respondents said being a Hindu majority state Ram Mandir will impact the voters. 25.32 percent respondents rejected this issue as non-essential issue (Fig-12).

10. Whether this election is going to be based on some regional issues like article 118 and development of Pahari language, 56.19 percent respondents said, people do not have enough understanding of these issues. 28.10 percent respondents feel that these issues should be there in mind of people while going out for vote (Fig-13).

 

11.  On the question of religious polarization as an issue in this election 62.66 percent respondents rejected it thoroughly but 25.51 percent respondents feel that in last few years religious polarization has entered into the social life of Himachal and this is also going to be impacted the polls (Fig-14).

12. On the question of slogans of INDI alliance, as per this alliance of more than 24 parties present parliament election is for saving constitution and democracy, 53.05 percent respondents felt convinced and 33.83 percent respondents rejected this slogan as useless (Fig-15).

13. On the question, which of political parties’ manifesto do you trust? 37.3 percent respondents said no political party fulfils its promises mentioned in their manifestoes. 30.5 percent shown faith on congress party’s guarantees. And 14 percent shown faith on Modi’s guarantees (Fig-16).

14. Whether this election again is going to be dominated by the waves of nationalism and Modi wave? 52.3 percent respondents rejected this wave and said this election is normal. 32.7 percent said both local issues and Modi’s popularity will affect the voters (Fig-17).

15.  On the question, does the national face of a party, such as Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi, matter to you when voting in the national elections, or do you vote on the candidate in your Lok Sabha constituency? 28.3 percent said party national leadership matters as it is national elections. 35.7 percent said candidate matters more that central leader and almost equal (36 percent) were in the favour of both (Fig-18).

16.  Another question that, does the state face of a party, such as Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu or Jairam Thakur matter to you when voting in national elections, or do you vote on the candidate in your Lok Sabha constituency? 28.3 percent said that state leadership matters as everything is interconnected. Simultaneously 36.7 percent rejected this preposition and 36 percent revealed mixed opinion (Fig-19).

17. In the name of INDIA alliance, CPI(M) in the state have been super active by supporting and leading campaign for congress candidates as they have strong base among  farmers, workers and students in some selected constituencies. So, the question was will this support going to be increasing the chance of victory for congress candidates? 40.3 percent said yes and 45.5 percent respondents agreed to some extent so total constitute 86 percent (Fig-20). This opinion was from all the four constituencies (Fig-21).

18. Supplementary question to previous one was if alliance is going to be beneficial for Congress than on which seat the impact will be most? Out of total 42 percent only on Mandi and Shimla seats, 32.5 percent said only in Shimla seat, 7.6 percent said it will impact on three seats Shimla Mandi and Kangra, and 3.4 percent claimed in all four seats however, 14 percent rejected the advantage in all seats (Fig-22).

19. Finally on the question that in your constituency which party’s candidate you think is going to win. 62 percent said Congress candidate and 35 percent respondents said BJP candidate (Fig-23).  And after analysing the responses constituency wise then Shimla, Mandi and Kangra is in favour of Congress and Hamirpur is going to be win by BJP (Fig-24).

 

About the Survey Investigators
Dr. Baldev Singh Negi	DR. DEVENDER SHARMA
Is MA, M.Phil & Ph.D. in Public Administration, PG Diploma in Geospatial Technology Applications for Rural Development from NIRDPR Hyderabad, MACSR from IGNOU, presently working at Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla as Faculty in the Department of Interdisciplinary Studies. He has completed two spells at IIAS as IUC-UGC Associate, has completed number of research projects funded by UGC, ICSSR and other state agencies and published number of research papers in reputed journals. Has attending number of Training Programmes/Workshops organized by CSDS & Lokniti, ICSSR, IIPA, NIRDPR, IPSA etc. [Mobile NO: 9418485352]	Is MA & Ph.D. in Political Science, qualified UGC-JRF (Political Science), did Post-Doc with ICSSR, Previously worked at IIAS, Shimla, UILS, H.P.University Shimla and presently working as Assistant Professor at Government Degree Chail Koti, Shimla. He has served on same post in the various colleges like GC Kumarsain, GC Sanjauli. Apart from this he has completed number of research projects funded by ICSSR and UGC and published number of research paper in reputed journals. He attending many workshops/training programmes on research methodology. [Mobile No: 9015350684]

Please see FIGURES details 

FIGURES related to Survey on Parliament Election 2024: Himachal Pradesh
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