Survey on General Election-2024: Himachal Pradesh

About the survey: It was an online survey conducted in Himachal Pradesh only to know the opinion of voters about their voting behaviour in the four parliamentary constituencies Shimla, Kangra, Mandi and Hamirpur. It was an independent and voluntary survey conducted by two researchers namely Dr. Baldev Singh Negi who is working at Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla and Dr. Devender Sharma, working at Government Degree College, Chail Koti, Himachal Pradesh.

The sample size of the survey was 1082 to understand the voting behaviour on the basis of the opinion of youth, women and employees on the issues like, manifestoes issued by different political parties, leaders/star campaigners’ influence, impact of INDI Alliance campaign, political turmoil’s and finally the winning position of parties.

Age wise 27.4 percent respondents were in the age group of 36-45, followed by 22.2 percent from 26-35 age group, 21.6 percent from 18-25 age group, 20.1 percent from 46-55 age group, between 56-56 year of age group there were 7.2 percent and above 66 years there were 1.5 percent. This shows that most of the respondents (71.2 percent) were from middle age group up to 45 years.

The socio-economic background of the respondents’ shows that, the survey was comprised of 63.4 percent general, 16.1 percent scheduled caste, and 15.2 percent Scheduled tribe and 5.4 percent were from the category of OBCs, which is the reflection of inclusivity of the sample. In this survey there was no respondent without formal literacy rather 88.2 percent respondents were having their qualification graduation and more than that. However, 11.8 respondents were having their education till higher secondary level. This survey included 44.9 percent employees, 25.1 percent students, 9.2 percent farmers, 3.3 percent businessman and there were 17 percent respondents who were from other professions.

The analysis on the different questions asked in this survey is as under:

1.    The question that which issue is going to dominate the 2024 general elections in Himachal Pradesh? Answering this question, 53.79 percent respondents stressed on unemployment, which is the most pressing demand of the youth in Himachal. Followed by unemployment, Inflation came out as the issue for 18.30 percent. However, 8 percent respondents said Ram Mandir is going to be an issue in this election. (Fig-1) If we analyse the youth data, 63 percent says unemployment is the dominating issue in this election (Fig-2).

2.    There was a question related to the turmoil occurred due to defection with in congress party. It was asked that whom do you think was responsible for that upheaval? Whether it was internal conflict or it was BJP’s operation lotus? 48.1 percent respondents considered internal working of congress party responsible for this incident, there were 41.2 percent respondent’s reasoned BJP’s operation lotus diplomacy. However, a considerable opinion (10.7 percent) was neutral. So there was mixed opinion on that question (Fig-3). 

3.    When a question was asked that whether this election is localised on Himachaliyat or Modi wave has wiped out local issues of the state? 61 percent respondents rejected Modi wave and said people are going to vote on local issues. However, 24.6 percent respondents still believe that Modi wave will dilute all local issues on the ground and 4.1 percent chose other (Fig-4).

4.    A devastating natural calamity in the form of flash floods occurred in the state last year caused more than 150 deaths and estimated total loss amounts to Rs. 10,000 crore. When it was asked that State government demanded from the centre to declare this natural calamity a national disaster, and centre refused, will this going to be an issue in the election? 49.2 percent respondents said this issue is going to be a pressing one and 23.8 percent respondents denied. Apart from this 27 percent said that there will be the impact of this issue but not to that extent (Fig-5).

5.    On the question whether Kisan Aandolan has any impact on the mind of peasant voters in Himachal, while voting for Lok Sabha? 33.5 percent said yes while 38.6 percent respondents said since the farmers of Himachal did not have direct participation in the protests therefore there is no influence and 27.9 percent directly denied its impact in the state (Fig-6).

6.    OPS have led a very significant role in the state assembly elections-2022. It was asked whether in this Lok Sabha election OPS will be a factor or not? 49.4 percent said yes because of fear of losing pension if BJP comes in power. Only 16 percent rejected this fear and impact of this issue in this election. Apart from this 34.2 respondents also admitted that there will be an impact but not like it was in the previous assembly elections (Fig-7). Out of total employees respondents 54.7 percent said that OPS is an issue in this election, not only this out of total (534 respondents who said this is an issues) 21 percent were students, 9 percent were farmers and 3.4 percent was businessman (Fig-8).

7.    Agnipath scheme which is one of the major issues among youth of north India as political analysts feel. The question was asked whether in this election it was an issue or not? 58.4 percent respondents accepted that this is a major issue among the youth (Fig-9). Those who said that Agnipath scheme is an issue (632 respondents) among them 75 percent were up to the age group of 45 years as young voters (Fig-10).

8.    On the question of corruption particularly electoral bonds as an issue in this election in Himachal Pradesh 47.50 percent respondents accepted it as an issue however 22 percent respondents feels that BJP and 7.6 percent says congress is going to be damaged by this issue. A significant (22.92 percent) thinks that this is not an issue (Fig-11).

9.    Is Ram Mandir as an issue in this election? 40.85 percent respondents said in Himachal Pradesh, people have faith in local deities therefore; Ram Mandir has not that much impact on the behaviour of voters. However, 33.83 percent respondents said being a Hindu majority state Ram Mandir will impact the voters. 25.32 percent respondents rejected this issue as non-essential issue (Fig-12).

10. Whether this election is going to be based on some regional issues like article 118 and development of Pahari language, 56.19 percent respondents said, people do not have enough understanding of these issues. 28.10 percent respondents feel that these issues should be there in mind of people while going out for vote (Fig-13).

 

11.  On the question of religious polarization as an issue in this election 62.66 percent respondents rejected it thoroughly but 25.51 percent respondents feel that in last few years religious polarization has entered into the social life of Himachal and this is also going to be impacted the polls (Fig-14).

12. On the question of slogans of INDI alliance, as per this alliance of more than 24 parties present parliament election is for saving constitution and democracy, 53.05 percent respondents felt convinced and 33.83 percent respondents rejected this slogan as useless (Fig-15).

13. On the question, which of political parties’ manifesto do you trust? 37.3 percent respondents said no political party fulfils its promises mentioned in their manifestoes. 30.5 percent shown faith on congress party’s guarantees. And 14 percent shown faith on Modi’s guarantees (Fig-16).

14. Whether this election again is going to be dominated by the waves of nationalism and Modi wave? 52.3 percent respondents rejected this wave and said this election is normal. 32.7 percent said both local issues and Modi’s popularity will affect the voters (Fig-17).

15.  On the question, does the national face of a party, such as Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi, matter to you when voting in the national elections, or do you vote on the candidate in your Lok Sabha constituency? 28.3 percent said party national leadership matters as it is national elections. 35.7 percent said candidate matters more that central leader and almost equal (36 percent) were in the favour of both (Fig-18).

16.  Another question that, does the state face of a party, such as Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu or Jairam Thakur matter to you when voting in national elections, or do you vote on the candidate in your Lok Sabha constituency? 28.3 percent said that state leadership matters as everything is interconnected. Simultaneously 36.7 percent rejected this preposition and 36 percent revealed mixed opinion (Fig-19).

17. In the name of INDIA alliance, CPI(M) in the state have been super active by supporting and leading campaign for congress candidates as they have strong base among  farmers, workers and students in some selected constituencies. So, the question was will this support going to be increasing the chance of victory for congress candidates? 40.3 percent said yes and 45.5 percent respondents agreed to some extent so total constitute 86 percent (Fig-20). This opinion was from all the four constituencies (Fig-21).

18. Supplementary question to previous one was if alliance is going to be beneficial for Congress than on which seat the impact will be most? Out of total 42 percent only on Mandi and Shimla seats, 32.5 percent said only in Shimla seat, 7.6 percent said it will impact on three seats Shimla Mandi and Kangra, and 3.4 percent claimed in all four seats however, 14 percent rejected the advantage in all seats (Fig-22).

19. Finally on the question that in your constituency which party’s candidate you think is going to win. 62 percent said Congress candidate and 35 percent respondents said BJP candidate (Fig-23).  And after analysing the responses constituency wise then Shimla, Mandi and Kangra is in favour of Congress and Hamirpur is going to be win by BJP (Fig-24).

 

About the Survey Investigators
Dr. Baldev Singh Negi	DR. DEVENDER SHARMA
Is MA, M.Phil & Ph.D. in Public Administration, PG Diploma in Geospatial Technology Applications for Rural Development from NIRDPR Hyderabad, MACSR from IGNOU, presently working at Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla as Faculty in the Department of Interdisciplinary Studies. He has completed two spells at IIAS as IUC-UGC Associate, has completed number of research projects funded by UGC, ICSSR and other state agencies and published number of research papers in reputed journals. Has attending number of Training Programmes/Workshops organized by CSDS & Lokniti, ICSSR, IIPA, NIRDPR, IPSA etc. [Mobile NO: 9418485352]	Is MA & Ph.D. in Political Science, qualified UGC-JRF (Political Science), did Post-Doc with ICSSR, Previously worked at IIAS, Shimla, UILS, H.P.University Shimla and presently working as Assistant Professor at Government Degree Chail Koti, Shimla. He has served on same post in the various colleges like GC Kumarsain, GC Sanjauli. Apart from this he has completed number of research projects funded by ICSSR and UGC and published number of research paper in reputed journals. He attending many workshops/training programmes on research methodology. [Mobile No: 9015350684]

Please see FIGURES details 

FIGURES related to Survey on Parliament Election 2024: Himachal Pradesh
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Unnat Himachal Abhiyan in compatibility to the UBA:2.0 can change to picture of Rural Development

Health Services in Remote Areas of Himachal Pradesh

Ignoring reservation policy not less than a conspiracy against the weaker section

Ignoring reservation policy not less than a conspiracy against the weaker section

Himachal Pradesh is abode of 25 per cent schedule castes, five percent schedule tribe, more than 15 per cent OBCs and disabled population is 2.25 per cent among the total population i.e. 68 Lakh. In Continuity to the provisions enshrined in our constitution there are mammoth machinery at the centre and in the state to cater the interests of these marginal groups more so the whole state ministry is in existence in HP too.

There are many organisations in the state claiming to be the vanguard of these depressed communities naming as morchas, manch and claiming them self de facto fighter apart from of political parties.  However the university which is known as den of scholars and visionary peoples, the Himachal Pradesh University have ignored the reservation policy while advertising 224 seats for the admission to Ph.D in different subjects.

It is pertinent here the University Grant Commission is the apex body to regulations on minimum standards of education and its notification appeared in the Gazette of India on the month of May, 2016 its clause 5.2.3 clearly envisages that adhere to the National/state reservation policy, as applicable. In the light of UGC above notification university is bound to follow the state reservation policy at the time of admission in 224 Ph.D. seats.

The state government in Himachal Pradesh is giving reservation in different way e.g. in government services for class I & II for SC’s 15 per cent, ST’s 5 per cent, OBC’s 12 per cent and for PwD it is 3 per cent, for class-III & IV there is 22 per cent for SC’s, 7.5 per cent for ST’s, 18 per cent for OBC’s and 3 per cent for disabled.

In the light of above state reservation Policy University has to follow the same pattern while granting admission not only in to M.Phil & Ph.D courses but for other post-graduate and graduate courses as well.

In the university the office of the dean of studies is empowered to conduct all entrance, other semester and annual examinations free and transparent manner by considering university’s and UGC’s regulations and various government rules. While talking about the transparency it is the paramount duty of the two offices, the office of Dean of Studies and Controller of Examination to ensure transparency as well as secrecy.  

It is again evident the Himachal Pradesh University campus is highly volatile with respect to the students politics and many teaching personal are directly office bearer to students’ as well as party’s mass organisations. In that situation it is suggested to these responsible offices to set the question papers from experts of other university or the institution instead of same department of the university. 

There are various Acts being enacted by the parliament such as SC/ST (Prevention of Atrocity) Act, 1989 to ensure the rights of the concerned communities and prevent atrocities on them. Therefore ignoring the important reservation policy in the light of clear cut notification by the university grant commission may be viewed not less than conspiracy against the SC’’s, ST’s and OBC’s and may be covered under these Acts as such. The act of ignoring the reservation policy is a just mistake for the perpetrators but for aggrieved it is future and the sole responsibility is of the state to protect the fundamental right of an individual and upholds the rule of law. 

On Medical Education-original article

Himachal Pradesh should handle the center offer wisely and keep the public interest on priority

Institutionally, there are ample medical institutions i.e. Health Centers, Primary Health Centers, Community Health Centers, Civil Hospitals, District and Zonal Hospital in Himachal Pradesh. Besides these Institutions there Ayurvedic Health Institutions also to cater the health services throughout the state. The premier institution like Indira Gandhi Medical College, Shimla and Dr. Rajindera Prasad Medical College, Tanda and Kamla Nehru Hospital, Shimla delivering fantastic health services to the people in given situation. Due to the touch and hilly geographical condition it is almost impossible to approach this premier health institution be it IGMC, RPMC or KNH therefore in the rural health infrastructure is needs to be strengthen. 

The health department report itself reveals that the most of the rural health institution in the state are running acute shortage of medical and para-medical staff e.g. as per the guidelines of Medical Council of India (MCI) there should be at least four medical specialists in a CHC but is pity that in Himachal Pradesh there around 76 CHC all are dry and only one or two medical officer are keeping its door just open. 

The state government is failing to stay the doctors in government service after the completion of compulsory time period majority of the doctors are leaving government job and opening their own hospital or clinic and some of them are joining private hospital.

The challenge before the government is to produce more doctors and specialist and then keep them stay in government services. With the opening of new medical colleges at Chamba, Sirmaur and Hamirpur and shifting the ESI Medical College to Himachal Pradesh has expended the people’s expectation for having good health services and producing more doctors, specialist and super specialists.   

This is crucial time for the people that the state cabinet has decided to run ESI medical college on self finance basis. The repercussion of its functioning would be the paid services for the people with user charges and paid seats of MBBS and others with huge fee in multi lakhs rupees. This ultimately will not be in favor of Himachali people and out their pocket or reach.

There is justification of limited paying capacity of people of the state as the socio-economic and cast census (SECC) reveals that, out of total households of Himachal Pradesh 1263756 which constitute 88.54 percent is rural. The dominant rural population are dependent is dependent on their petty and limited agricultural activities. The land holding of these rural household is too small which constitute around one hectare only. Meanwhile, the 66 per cent of total geographical area of the state is under the forest department and there is only 11.17 per cent land where agriculture activities are conducted by state’s peasantry. The bulk of that land, around 66.85 per cent is un-irrigated or dependant on monsoon.   

Operation of these medical college on self finance basis in not in the favor of state, where 23.5 per cent household member are government job but  21.48 per cent are earning highest income less than Rs. 5000/- in a month. Just imagine how their sibling can think of paying multi lakhs rupees fee for MBBS and how these family can think of have health services in these medical college where state government is planning to run on the basis of self financing.

Let’s take this discussion in other mode the issue of site location of central university is hanging in pendulum even after passing more than five years. The better and prudent decision would had been to upgrade the only state university i.e. Himachal Pradesh University, Shimla as central university and the oldest university’s regional center Dharamshala as state university. But our political bosses went on another mode to distribute this national importance institution in to geographic divide.

Similarly, the fear is about the debut of AIIMS at Bilaspur in this case the wise decision should be to cash the opportunity in hand to immediately open the AIIMS at recently transferred ESIC hospital, Mandi. The three medical colleges sanctioned in UPA regime, shift one among them to Bilaspur.  Though, this is not a big deal to have such instant decision if the leaders from both parties in Himachal Pradesh think in this direction or keeps the public interest prior than to the political gain. 

Therefore keening in view of the state economy and socio-economic background of stats population where around 23 per cent of populations are scheduled caste and having very poor background economically, government should seriously revisit the decision and run ESI Hospital and other three medical colleges as the already medical colleges and Hospital like IGMC, RPMC, and KNH are functioning. Only then there will be benefit of having such important institution in the state and then the population will be benefited if they get subsidized MBBS seats for their sibling and cater free health facilities to common people.

Our government should be wise enough to handle the center government offer of sanctioning institutions of national repute be it PGI or CU no matter it is UPA or NDA in centre and BJP or Congress in State.